Estimates of basic reproduction number (R0)
Estimates of herd immunity threshold are based on estimates of basic reproduction nubmer (R0).
| R0 | Serial Interval (mean days) | Epidemic Doubling Time (days) | Date (updated, published) | Notes, References |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.6 - 3.3 | 4.5 | Apr 22 | Preliminary estimating the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020. | |
| 3.5 - 4.4 | 4.41 | 1.20 | Apr 22 | CDC Early Release Article Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission Potential, Iran, 2020 |
| 5.7 | 6 – 9 | 2.3 – 3.3 | Apr 7 |
"Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days" ... which seems a bit more like SARS/MERS.
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 |
| 1.3 | 4 | 7.4 | Mar 19 |
"our findings should be interpreted as working hypotheses regarding the infectiousness of COVID-19, requiring further validation"
Short serial interface due to pre/a-symptomic transmission. Doubling time based on much earlier paper/study. CDC Early Release Article Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases |
| 4.0 | Mar 12 |
"Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days"
Serial interval in determining the estimation of reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early outbreak |
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| 2.2 | 7.5 | 7.4 | Mar 26 | Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia |
| 2 - 2.5 | 5 - 6 | Mar 6 | WHO Situation Report 46 |