Pathogenic Pulmonary Disease (PPD)

COVID-19 is caused by a new strain of coronavirus. But COVID-19 is very much a type of danger that has always been around. COVID-19 is a "Pathogenic Pulmonary Disease" (PPD), along with influenza, pneumonia, and tuberculosis. These PPDs have caused deaths every year, year-round, for millennia.

Weekly Deaths vs Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

Most reporting on COVID-19 danger is for the risk of dying if you get covid-19. But what is your risk of getting COVID-19?

Weekly deaths per million people is a rough measurement of the combined risk of getting covid-19 and then dying from it.

Weekly deaths per million, US historical (age-adjusted) vs 2020

Linear Trend in Past Tuberculosis

Tuberculosis prior to 1900 extends in a roughly linear trend. (note: rate is annual per 100,000)

Image source

Seasonal Flu & Pneumonia Pattern

See Also

Decades of Risk Retrogression is an alternative metric for COVID-19 danger from this historical perspective.

A discussion about guarding mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic.