Mathematical Details
… TBD …
If \(m < 710\) then \[ 40 \; \log\frac{m}{ 130 } \] else \[ (2020 - 1952) + \frac{m - 710}{ 99 } \]
- Hypothetical reference risk for 2020 had there been no COVID-19:
- 130 micromorts/year
- Pivot year
- 1952
- Linear slope
- 99 micromorts/year^{2 }
- Log slope (approx micromorts/year fraction increase per year)
- 0.025 log(micromorts/year)/year