ref.castedo.com/covid19/


Mathematical Details

… TBD …

If \(m < 710\) then \[ 40 \; \log\frac{m}{ 130 } \] else \[ (2020 - 1952) + \frac{m - 710}{ 99 } \]

Hypothetical reference risk for 2020 had there been no COVID-19:
130 micromorts/year
Pivot year
1952
Linear slope
99 micromorts/year2
Log slope (approx micromorts/year fraction increase per year)
0.025 log(micromorts/year)/year