ref.castedo.com/covid19/


Core DC Metro Area

4.2 million inhabitants of District of Columbia, Montgomery, Prince George’s, Arlington, Fairfax, Alexandria counties

Top three questions:

Q1: Is an outbreak starting?

If the rate of new cases is growing (above 0%) that is not good (exponential growth bad).

Growth/Shrinking of Rate of New Cases *
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* Rate of new cases is weekly, but change % is quoted in terms of daily growth/shrinking.

Q2: How dangerous is it now?

The following numbers evaluate “danger #2” in this split of covid danger.

New Covid deaths * per week per million in Core DC Metro Area
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See a historical perspective for a broad context.

* What is counted as a death from COVID-19?
** TB = Tuberculosis. Historical rates are age-adjusted. 1865 rate is based on limited records, but follows the historical trend.

How close is Core DC Metro Area to herd immunity?

% of population dead due to COVID *
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What is the herd immunity death threshold?

* What is counted as a death from COVID-19?

Estimates of (past) % of population infected:
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Estimates are based on infection fatality rate.

Data Check

Per million:
confirmed deaths
2020-06-01 12117.4 517.2
2020-06-02 12288.4 522.1
2020-06-03 12455.4 530.5
Total:
confirmed deaths
2020-06-01 51009 2177
2020-06-02 51729 2198
2020-06-03 52432 2233