ref.castedo.com/covid19/

New York City, NY

8.4 million inhabitants

• Q1: Is an outbreak starting?
• Q2: How dangerous is it now?
• Q3: How close is NYC to herd immunity?

Q1: Is an outbreak starting?

If the rate of new cases is growing (above 0%) that is not good (exponential growth bad).

Growth/Shrinking of Rate of New Cases ^*

* Rate of new cases is weekly, but change % is quoted in terms of daily growth/shrinking.

Q2: How dangerous is it now?

The following numbers evaluate “danger #2” in this split of covid danger.

New Covid deaths ^* per week per million in NYC

See a historical perspective for a broad context.

* What is counted as a death from COVID-19?
** TB = Tuberculosis. Historical rates are age-adjusted. 1865 rate is based on limited records, but follows the historical trend.

How close is NYC to herd immunity?

% of population dead due to COVID ^*

What is the herd immunity death threshold?

* What is counted as a death from COVID-19?

Estimates of (past) % of population infected:

Estimates are based on infection fatality rate.

Data Check